A spot of fun for Space Marine players... IS YOUR CHAPTER DOOMED!?!?

[Wargamer]

Heh, sorry for the melodrama, but I couldn't resist.

Basically, I've written a shiny little c# program that asks you for some figures and does Epic Maths to decide whether your Chapter is growing to the point where it is secretly a Space Marine Legion, or utterly borked.

For now, I'd like to invite you guys to try it by posting your Chapter and their vitals. Please provide the information in the following pattern:

Chapter Size:
Average yearly casualties:
Average Neophyte intake:
% of Neophytes lost:

Let me explain each of these values for you, and how these can actually be handy for you if you plan on writing background.

Chapter Size is how many you have at the start of the exercise. You can put it at whatever value you want. If you're trying to decide if your Chapter is stable or not I suggest 1,000. However, if you'd like to try a "will my Chapter ever recover?" scenario, try putting a much lower figure.

Average yearly casualties is exactly what it sounds like. Try to ignore big catastrophes and stuff - the program already has some degree of randomness in it.

Average Neophyte intake is best thought of as "how many people make it to the Scout Company each year". Essentially, the Neophytes have begun receiving the Geneseed, but are not yet proper Space Marines.

Neophytes lost is a % chance (between 0 and 100) of a Neophyte being 'lost' before he becomes a full-fledged Space Marine. This could be due to him turning into a mutant and being 'cleansed', dying of tissue rejection, a training accident or getting killed as a Scout.

Throw all these figures at me and I shall deliver back the results I remember to do.

Things to keep in mind though: the results are random every time. I get a 50 year timelapse, but I really don't want to type all that out so I'll just give you the summary of "after 50 years this is what you achieved." You can then use that to rethink your numbers and consider what the Chapter might have to do differently to improve its luck (or, hopefully, to stop overpopulation of the Chapter!).

Well, there's the offer ladies and gents; whose Chapter shall be the first guinea-pig?

[Narric]

Alright, I'll try it out

Chapter Size: 600
Average yearly casualties: 137
Average Neophyte intake: 196
% of Neophytes lost: 35%

Just some figures I'm plucking from imagination. I need to try and write for my force anyway, as it gives me Creative Writing experience. I'm going to guess my Chapter is "Borked"

[Edit]
Changed the numbers because Mkoll pointed out that my chapter was already borked before Neophyte casualties

[Scout Sergeant Mkoll]

Knights of Kydonia.

Chapter size: 243 (post-massacre)
Average yearly casualties: 38
Average Neophyte intake: 50
% Neophyte loss: 5

[Waaaghpower]

Astral Knights:
Chapter Size: 772
Average Casualties (Per 100 hours): 767
Average Neophyte Intake: 100
% Neophyte Loss: 100%

If you don't get it, look it up.

[SILK]

"Iron Swarm"

Chapter Size: 1696
Average yearly casualties: 436
Average Neophyte intake: 4830
% of Neophytes lost: 98%

And yes, I have fluff for this army. Just thought I'd throw a spanner in the works.

[Wargamer]

"Iron Swarm"

Chapter Size: 1696
Average yearly casualties: 436
Average Neophyte intake: 4830
% of Neophytes lost: 98%

And yes, I have fluff for this army. Just thought I'd throw a spanner in the works.

Well they'd be dead from lack of geneseed in under a decade, so I don't even need to run numbers on how screwed they are. In fact, given those numbers, I think they're an Imperial Guard regiment pretending to be Astartes.

For the others...

Alright, I'll try it out

Chapter Size: 600
Average yearly casualties: 137
Average Neophyte intake: 196
% of Neophytes lost: 35%

The vagaries of war are not kind to your Chapter. First run indicates total Chapter destruction in eight years. Second run Chapter initially grew, but was ultimately wiped out after fourteen years. Third run again saw the Chapter destroyed within fourteen years.

Assessment: Chapter casualty rates at critical levels; reducing Neophyte losses to 10% delayed Chapter destruction to approximately 40 years, but alone it is not enough.
Reducing casualty rate to approximately 70 Marines per year allows for rapid Chapter replenishment, returning to active strength in 19 years and remaining at or above Codex-suggested levels for the full 50 year simulation.
Saving the Chapter through Neophyte intake increases is not, in and of itself, a practical option; theoretical assessment indicates an intake of 350 Neophytes per year in order to keep Chapter numbers relatively stable (50 year projection shows overall growth to 693), but such high recruitment, combined with high attrition, would destroy the Chapter through lack of Geneseed.

Sorry, Narric, but it looks as though your Chapter needs to back out of the fighting, or be consigned to oblivion.

Knights of Kydonia.

Chapter size: 243 (post-massacre)
Average yearly casualties: 38
Average Neophyte intake: 50
% Neophyte loss: 5

The Knights of Kydonia, based on these figures, are destined to a slow, lingering death. On the initial run they fall below Company strength within 20 years, and are gone by 30. Second run the Chapter held out until year 47, but again spent most of the decade as little more than a depleted Company. Third run they again slowly bled out, falling below Company strength in year 30, and dying out altogether six years later.

Assessment: the Knights do have some options. By simply reducing their casualty rate to as little as 20 per year, the Knights could rise to over 750 strong across a 50 year period. This does, however, assume the Chapter has sufficient geneseed stock to maintain this Neophyte intake of 50 for a five year period. If not, the Chapter is in very serious trouble.
Reducing casualties to an average of 30 per year would ensure the Chapter is "stable" at its current strength, give or take. With that simulation the Knights rose to a high of 366 in 12 years, before dropping and hovering around 188-192 for many years until they finally began to claw it back in the last decade to reach a fighting strength of 233 in year 50.

[Osiris]

just thought i would make an observation...

it would seem that BT/Smurfs/DA are the only chapters that would ever really outlive the other chapters. I included BT as I cannot recall if it was BT or DA who (iirc) are constantly breaking the chapter size rules and actually have more than the maximum for each.

just like my BA are consigned to extinction due to the flaw. :/

i do like the idea, and when I find detailed information about IF and BA, I will post it here to see how much longer I can enjoy playing both.

[SILK]

Well they'd be dead from lack of geneseed in under a decade, so I don't even need to run numbers on how screwed they are. In fact, given those numbers, I think they're an Imperial Guard regiment pretending to be Astartes.

I thought I told at the Last meet up that my journal was for my eyes only?

[Mabbz]

Ok, my Red Talon that I made for your deathwatch rp.


Chapter Size: 870
Average yearly casualties: 94
Average Neophyte intake: 290
% of Neophytes lost: 73% (all that plasma weapon training )

[GreaterGoodNewZealand]

This is for my home made chapter, the Iron Consanguines:

Chapter Size: 350 (following a tomb world awakening)
Average yearly casualties: 35
Average Neophyte intake: 100
% of Neophytes lost: 10

[Narric]

Dayum, maybe I should look ito how my Chapter is Deployed

I guess Reducing casualties, and recruiting to as ahigh a rate as possible without depleting Geneseed stock would be all I could, as they don't have a great deal of option to not be an Active Chapter.

[Railgun Convention]

Let's see how the Blue Vipers fared after their homeworld was lost...

Chapter size: 350
Average yearly casualties: 20
Average Neophyte intake: 70
% of Neophytes lost: 30

[Chicop76]

Order of the Fleur De lis

Chapter size: 112
Average yearly casualties: 20
Average Neophyte intake: 2,000,000
% of Neophytes lost: 99.9999

[Scout Sergeant Mkoll]

Alright, I'll revamp the figures a bit. 50 neophytes seems a bit of a low intake anyway tbh.
Knights of Kydonia.

Chapter size: 243 (post-massacre)
Average yearly casualties: 38
Average Neophyte intake: 120
% Neophyte loss: 5

[Wargamer]

Ok, my Red Talon that I made for your deathwatch rp.


Chapter Size: 870
Average yearly casualties: 94
Average Neophyte intake: 290
% of Neophytes lost: 73% (all that plasma weapon training )

Quite amusingly, this Chapter received a declaration of doom from my program right from the beginning due to lack of Geneseed; high casualties, combined with massive Neophyte attrition, meant that by year two alone the Chapter had a massive Geneseed deficit and, strictly speaking, should not have been able to keep pumping out recruits.

This makes it a technical year 1 takedown, though assuming geneseed stocks were not a problem the Chapter is still in slow decline; three tests resulted in a year 23, 21 and 18 destruction through attrition.

The simple answer here is that any Chapter that is losing such a high percentage of Neophytes is pretty much doomed and must take immediate action to rectify it.

This is for my home made chapter, the Iron Consanguines:

Chapter Size: 350 (following a tomb world awakening)
Average yearly casualties: 35
Average Neophyte intake: 100
% of Neophytes lost: 10

It may surprise you to learn that the Iron Consanguines are actually in pretty good shape! Assuming they have been taking in 100 Neophytes at a time for the past five-six years (since at the moment the calculator doesn't account for their time spent 'in training'), the Chapter will be able to bring its numbers back up fairly quickly; they tend to reach full Chapter Strength within 20 years.

Interestingly, the Chapter grew in years 1 and 2 despite suffering higher than average casualties and having lower than average recruitment!

Let's see how the Blue Vipers fared after their homeworld was lost...

Chapter size: 350
Average yearly casualties: 20
Average Neophyte intake: 70
% of Neophytes lost: 30

Oh, now here is an amusing Chapter...

The chapter grows quite steadily for about thirty years, and then hits a wall when a massive recruitment takes place, combined with a period of bad luck in terms of Neophyte and young-Marine losses. The result is that the Chapter actually runs out of geneseed despite the fact it is growing!

Year 31 fixes this error, but by year 38 and 39 it happens again; two years straight without enough geneseed to meet demand!

By year 50, the Chapter has risen to a fighting strength of 996, with a few years of low casualties and their Scout Company looking to receive heavy reinforcements.

So long as the Blue Vipers have some geneseed stockpiled (the program assumes you have none spare...) they will recover. It'll be a slow recovery, but it will happen. Alternatively, given their situation, they may be allowed to refuse the gene tithe for a few years; that alone would be enough to overcome the lack of geneseed and allow them to rebuild without issue.

Order of the Fleur De lis

Chapter size: 112
Average yearly casualties: 20
Average Neophyte intake: 2,000,000
% of Neophytes lost: 99.9999

Doomed from the offset. Next!

Alright, I'll revamp the figures a bit. 50 neophytes seems a bit of a low intake anyway tbh.
Knights of Kydonia.

Chapter size: 243 (post-massacre)
Average yearly casualties: 38
Average Neophyte intake: 120
% Neophyte loss: 5

Assuming the Knights of Kydonia have enough Geneseed to support that level of Neophyte intake, they would be back to full Chapter strength within 10-15 years, depending on the whims of fate.